Don't Blame Europe This Time - It's All About China

Asian stock markets have opened the week extremely weak (no pun intended). No doubt much of that is due to the SPX rolling over on Friday, but there is more. The Nikkei is down 1.8%, Hang Seng almost 3% and Shanghai 1.2% - all of them more than the 1% or so drop of the S&P in the last trading session of last week.

The mainstream media is quick to blame the noise out of Europe, but there is

Better Late Than Never - Chinese Data Is Publicly Questioned

We have thought for some time that data published by the National Bureau of Statistics and other official organs of the Chinese government should not be taken at face value. See for example Can One Trust China's Economic Statistics? written in early February. A week ago The New York Times came out with a detailed account of much of the mounting evidence in Chinese Data Mask Depth of Slowdown, Executives Say.

There are many reasons to suspect that, even without having actual evidence that falsification is happening. And we don't always need evidence, because in order for an investor to be profitable

The China PMI Contradiction. Or Who Can You Trust?

Very often the simplest explanation is the best. Why did HSBC's China PMI show a 4th consecutive month of contraction in March, while the official numbers generated by the National Bureau of Statistics indicate continuing growth?

Two months ago in Can One Trust China's Economic Statistics? we looked at some indications that the official government statistics may be untrustworthy. As all the evidence points to a serious slowdown,