Jun 29, 2012

Better Late Than Never - Chinese Data Is Publicly Questioned

We have thought for some time that data published by the National Bureau of Statistics and other official organs of the Chinese government should not be taken at face value. See for example Can One Trust China's Economic Statistics? written in early February. A week ago The New York Times came out with a detailed account of much of the mounting evidence in Chinese Data Mask Depth of Slowdown, Executives Say.

There are many reasons to suspect that, even without having actual evidence that falsification is happening. And we don't always need evidence, because in order for an investor to be profitable

Jun 26, 2012

Follow Us on Twitter

Just a quick reminder that those who only read the blog and not the twitter feed may be missing important timely changes of our market calls. For example on Jun 19th we called for the Australian dollar to appreciate following the RBA statement. Aud/Usd did indeed rally to 1.02 on June 21st, after which we reversed our position with a tweet calling for a sell-off. To avoid missing up-to-the-minute commentary and view changes, follow @WhatifEconomics.

Jun 19, 2012

AUD to Appreciate on Hawkish RBA, Resilient Economy

Before the June RBA meeting, the market was predicting even chances of a quarter and half point cuts. This was despite the fact that relatively speaking Australia's economy has been faring quite well despite the recent weakness in China. Well so much for that, as the minutes of RBA's monetary policy meeting showed today.

The Board considered whether the recent information warranted a further reduction in the cash rate. The arguments were finely balanced.
Cutting aggressively was apparently not even discussed. The question was whether to cut at all.