Dec 24, 2011

Bearish Contrarian Signal on Gold - Popular Press Still Very Bullish

Once again the popular opinion is probably guilty of error by extrapolation. Everyone is asking not if but when Gold will reach $2000 / ounce. This is always a very worrying contrarian sign as it means nobody is even considering the opposite possibility.  "New year offers gold another shot at $2,000" on offers no specific reasons why this should happen at all, but rather explanations why it hasn't yet (the assumption being that at some point it somehow _has_ to). Even though Gold is currently tracking the equity markets, the piece claims that a European collapse should trigger a massive spike and not a selloff in the precious metal. It makes you wonder, especially given the -10.5% loss that John Paulson's Gold fund has racked up this year according to Bloomberg despite the 13% rally in bullion year-to-date. It may be that the gold miner stocks that he owns are pricing in the uncertain future demand better than the spot market.

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