Mar 9, 2012

AUD Continues to Track Overall Risk Sentiment, Ignores Fundamentals

Over the past few days, all eyes have been on the Greek debt swap, with S&P futures quite volatile, swayed by rumours and expectations. At the same time Aud/Usd continues to trade in risk-on / risk-off mode, paying little heed to the economic reality. It underperformed slightly when GDP came out worse than expected on Wedn morning, but pretty much ignored worse employment data on Thu and an surprising trade deficit Fri morning. Overall things are not looking great at all, but the currency is
extremely firm. There is no use fighting the tape, yet the fundamentals are stacked against the AUD. RBA chief Stevens reminded us on Tue in his monetary policy statement:
The exchange rate has risen over recent months, even though the terms of trade have declined.

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