Jan 27, 2012

Commodities Super Cycle Reversing Course

According to this Reuters article,
Last year had the lowest commodity inflows of the past nine years, with fresh investments dropping almost 78 percent compared with 2010, Barclays Capital said on Thursday.
Investors in precious metals and energy had a very volatile experience in 2011 and many are wondering if it really is the sure bet that they expected. For example Gold has had a big rollercoaster of a ride and Silver has been even more volatile (see a previous WhatIf post Gold Appears to have Lost its Shine for more details on the metals).

With Beijing trying to rebalance China's economy away from investment and towards consumption, the huge bursts of residential construction and capital investment may be behind us. As we have seen before, construction is unlikely to be picking up anytime soon and if China is headed for a slowdown, demand for most industrial commodities will drop considerably. Barclay's prediction of volumes and prices picking up notwithstanding, it appears that the market has reached a turning point in its 10-year cycle.

No comments:

Post a Comment