Jan 25, 2012

Japan Logs Annual Trade Deficit in Calendar 2011

On the back of bad numbers for Nov (see Japan Nov Trade Deficit Worsens - Usd/Jpy to Turn the Corner Soon) Japan has logged another negative surprise for Dec, as announced on The Ministry of Finance website today. This makes the first annual trade deficit in 30 years. The income earned on foreign exchange reserves will likely partially offset that but there is no doubt that Japan's fiscal and current account position is only getting worse. Once the market starts pricing that in, we would expect an upside breakout of Usd/Jpy with an intermediate target in 85.00 area.

(For more on Japan's fiscal situation see Japan's Budget Mess. This WhatIf post is from about month ago but the analysis is still valid.)

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